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about 7 years ago

The housing market I: higher interest rates and prices have halted the recovery in single family homes

By: New_Deal_democrat

Based on the increase in interest rates last summer, by now I thought that housing in general would be down about -100,000 units a year. Although the housing market in general has slowed down, that hasn't happened, and the more volatile housing starts number showed a YoY increase of more than 20% YoY in April. When a forecast doesn't pan out as I expect, I try not to argue with the data. Read more

about 7 years ago

The housing market I: higher interest rates and prices have halted the recovery in single family homes

By: New_Deal_democrat

Based on the increase in interest rates last summer, by now I thought that housing in general would be down about -100,000 units a year. Although the housing market in general has slowed down, that hasn't happened, and the more volatile housing starts number showed a YoY increase of more than 20% YoY in April. When a forecast doesn't pan out as I expect, I try not to argue with the data. Read more

about 7 years ago

XE Market Analysis: Asia - May 19, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was very sluggish in N.Y. on Monday, as a lack of data coupled with steady yields, and marginally higher equities to keep the dollar inside a narrow band. EUR-USD managed a 1.3703 to 1.3734 range, though spent most of its time inside of 1.3715-25. Read more

about 7 years ago

XE Market Analysis: North America - May 19, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The USD established was softer versus the JPY and EUR, and was more flat-to-mixed against other currencies. USD-JPY broke below the Mar-3 low to make a three-month low of 101.10. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses were also lower as the yen followed its usual inverse correlation with risk appetite, as weak house price data out of China fed slowdown concerns in Asia's biggest economy. Read more

about 7 years ago

XE Market Analysis: Europe - May 19, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The yen posted gains during the PM session in Tokyo amid a developing risk aversion theme as weak house price data out of China fed slowdown concerns in Asia's biggest economy. The Nikkei stock index was showing a 0.6% decline in late session, while Australia's ASX 200 closed 1.2% for the worse, while the broad MSCI Asia Pacific index was indicated with a 0.4% decline. Read more

about 7 years ago

Weekly Indicators: the tax withholding anomaly edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

This monthly data for April included new post-recession highs for housing permits and starts, positive NY and Philly Fed manufacturing readings, and slightly positive retail sales. On the other hand, both producer and consumer inflation ran hot, meaning real retail sales were negative (but March was revised higher), University of Michigan sentiment turned down, and both industrial production and capacity utilization turned down sharply (partly due to a steep decline in utility usage after the unusually severe winter). My weekly report on the high frequency weekly indicators is meant to provide an up-to-this-week snapshot of the economy. Read more

about 7 years ago

International Week In Review: Japanese And EU Slowdown In the Works Edition

By: HaleStewart

Let's start by looking at the good news coming from Japan: the corporate CPI index increased 4.1% Y/Y and 2.8% M/M. This is very good news on the inflation front, indicating that price gains are starting to take hold. In addition, machine tool orders increased 48.8% Y/Y, indicating the businesses are starting to retool as a result of consumer demand. Read more

about 7 years ago

XE Market Analysis: Asia - May 16, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was fairly uneventful in N.Y. on Friday, with narrow ranges holding up overall. Better than expected housing starts, was offset by a softer Michigan sentiment outcome later, though neither report had much dollar impact. EUR-USD traded under 1.3700 early in the session, though recovered briefly toward 1.3720 before settling into the 1.3700 area. Read more

about 7 years ago

XE Market Analysis: North America - May 16, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD was knocked back below 1.3700 after giving a weak rebound in early London trade, which saw the euro stall at 13727, five pips shy of yesterday's peak. Price action remains clearly bearish. Yesterday's three-month low at 1.3648 is back in scope, though interbank and short-term speculative participants will be trending careful due to the risk of a pre-weekend short squeeze following a bearish week. Read more

about 7 years ago

XE Market Analysis: Asia - May 15, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mostly lower in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, as risk-off trade dominated. A 7-year low in jobless claims, better Philly Fed and N.Y. Fed indices outcomes were offset by a miss in industrial production, hotter core CPI and a weaker NAHB housing market index. Read more

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