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The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade, with direction determined largely by fresh angst in the Ukraine. Safe haven dollar demand versus the euro was the major driver behind EUR-USD's drop, with anticipated Crimea annexation giving way to fear of a deeper crisis in Eastern Ukraine. Read more
Over the last month, the economic news from China has been a bit disconcerting. Both of the HSBC surveys have printed in the negative numbers, exports have been off, and now retail sales and industrial production nunbers have disappointed. Let's look at these numbers in more detail to better understand their economic ramifications. Remember that China is attempting to change the composition of its economic growth from an export dependant model to one more evenly balanced between exports and consumer spending. Read more
The USD posted across the board losses, extending recent weakness, aided by AUD-USD gains following a much stronger than expected Australian employment report, a NZD-USD rally after the RBNZ hiked interest rates, and a decline in USD-JPY that was fueled a forecast beating January machine orders data. Read more
The USD posted across the board losses, extending recent weakness, aided by AUD-USD gains following a much stronger than expected Australian employment report, and a NZD-USD rally after the RBNZ hiked interest rates. USD-JPY was also weighed on by January machine orders, which came in above expectations, at +13.4% in January. Read more
Above is a 5-year weekly chart of the EUR/USD. Now that prices have moved through the 1.38 level with conviction, the question becomes what is the next price target? As the above chart shows, a level right below 1.42 holds the next technical resistance level. Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog. Read more
The dollar was mostly lower through the session, though risk off conditions kept pressure on the CAD and AUD, at least through the morning session. EUR-USD reclaimed the 1.39 handle again, though failed to take out Friday's 1.3915 peak. USD-JPY meanwhile, headed to 102.55 lows, on risk aversion, softer equities, and lower Treasury yields. Read more
EUR-USD drifted to sub-1.3850 levels for the first time since last Thursday in otherwise fairly featureless trade. The continuing Russia v NATO Crimean standoff has weighed on the euro a little today, while some bank research notes in circulation are seeing EUR-USD as being overvalued, partly with the U.S. Read more
There are several important articles today on the overall health of the EU economy. First, Martin Wolf at the FT has written a very thorough piece arguing the ECB is far too complacent regarding deflation. His post links to an IMF blog post that argues weak inflation readings are indeed a danger sign the ECB is not heeding. Read more
Risk-off positioning was seen in the main currency markets, which means JPY and CHF outperformance and AUD underperformance, as China concerns hit natural resources, particularly copper, along with global stock markets. Copper futures have been slammed to a near four-year low as the unexpected dive China export data continued to reverberate, along with concerns of more corporate bond defaults. Read more
FX trade was again relatively quiet in N.Y. on Tuesday, with a lack of first tier data limiting directional cues. Wholesale sales data were softer than expected, though this data series rarely has much impact on the dollar. Major USD pairings were held inside famililar and narrow ranges, though overall, the greenback lost some ground. Read more
