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The US Federal Reserved issued the Beige Book -- a compilation of anecdotal information from each Federal Reserve District -- last week. The district level information is presented in economically logical “nuggets” such as personal consumption expenditures, real estate and employment. Read more
- by New Deal democratThe government shutdown prevented the reporting of housing permits and starts. Due to the missing data, the Conference Board did not report the Leading Indicators for September. The Empire Manufacturing index decelerated but was still positive, and the Philly Fed index accelerated and remained positive.Fortunately, none of the high frequency weekly indicators I report on were affected by the shutdown, except for the need to estimate YoY inflation for one series. Read more
by New Deal democratComputer issues in California have bedeviled the weekly initial jobless claims reports for the last six weeks. We can make a good estimate the "real" initial jobless claims have been, however, by excluding California, comparing the unadjusted average for the other 49 states this year vs. Read more
The dollar was still pegged back following Thursday's deep losses after Congress extended the debt limit. In addition, bearish sentiment was reinforced by expectations that the recent political wrangling could delay further the Fed's willingness to taper. Read more
The dollar was still pegged back following Thursday's deep losses after Congress extended the debt limit. In addition, the greenback was weakened by concerns that the recent political wrangling could delay further the Fed's willingness to taper. The USD-index headed under 80.00, which lifted EUR to 1.3680, and in Asia it traded near 1.3660. Read more
There was a mild relief rally in risk assets overnight after the U.S. Senate and House passed the budget deal, which will extend the debt ceiling till early February and reopen the government till the middle of January. However, the move ran its course as market participants looked ahead to more potentially fractious negotiations early next year, while many suspect that it could push back Fed policy tapering even further. Read more
Risk assets posted a relief rally after the U.S. Senate and House passed the budget deal, which will extend the debt ceiling till early February and reopen the government till the middle of January. However, after the fractious negotiations over the last few weeks there is already a bit of caution as market participants brace themselves for further drama next year. Read more
The US is currently engaged in an extreme case of brinksmanship with it's credit rating hanging in the balance. However, outside of the political calculations currently taking place there are two key areas of the economy which these events are already negatively impacting. Read more
The FX majors and the commodity bloc currencies consolidated for the most part as the market waits on a potential deal from Washington D.C. There were conflicting reports, but overall the signs are positive, which has alleviated some of the pressure on speculative positions. Read more
The FX majors and the commodity bloc currencies consolidated in Asia as the market waits on a potential deal from Washington D.C. There were conflicting reports, but overall the signs are positive, which has alleviated some of the pressure on speculative positions. Read more
