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July monthly data included positive industrial production, capacity utilization, and Empire State Manufacturing. Producer prices increased slightly. Retail sales were flat. University of Michigan sentiment as to present conditions improved, but expectations declined. Read more
For the last few year, the overall tenor of the news has been positive. Although some reported numbers have been negative, it was easy to look at them as statistical noise. And, most of these numbers rebounded within a few months. But this week legitimate concerning data emerged, starting with Japan. Read more
U.S. data was mixed on Friday, though the in-line PPI, softer N.Y. Fed index, and better industrial production had little impact on FX trade. Geopolitics was the main driver, as events in Russia/Ukraine ultimately turned a moderate stock rally upside down, and sent risk levels, and USD-JPY lower. Read more
The dollar weathered a brief dip during the European AM session in fairly lacklustre summertime trading conditions. EUR-USD has sunk back to the 1.3365 area after lifting a peak of 1.3391, turning shy of resistance comes at 1.3407-15 (which marks both yesterday's and Wednesday's peaks). Read more
The dollar stumbled some early in the session, as higher U.S. jobless claims, and softer import prices took EUR-USD briefly over 1.34005, and USD-JPY to lows of 102.31. As risk levels improved however, the greenback perked back up, later resulting in the euro probing under 1.3365, and USD-JPY back over 102.50. Read more
One of the graphs I have run over and over again is the one showing that, since 1980, each recession has occurred only after a 3 year period when interest rates did not make a new low. Generally this means that if real wages aren't increasing, if a widely held asset like stock market 401k accounts or housing isn't appreciating to new highs, and if falling interest rates don't permit the refinancing of existing debt at lower monthly payments, consumers have pulled back, triggering a recession. Let's acknowledge that both housing prices and the stock market have increased, the latter to new highs, since the Great Recession. Read more
The dollar came under moderate pressure today. EUR-USD rallied some 30 pips after expectedly weak Eurozone data, making an intraday high of 1.3396. Eurozone July HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.4% y/y, as expected, while the preliminary Eurozone Q2 GDP estimate dropped to 0.0% q/q from 0.2% growth in Q1. Read more
The dollar remained firm, with USD-JPY extending to a six-day high of 102.66 following sub-expectations Japanese machinery orders data and EUR-USD remaining heavy after yesterday's short-lived post-U.S. data rally above 1.3400. The euro dipped back to the 1.3350 area in early Europe following the 0.2% contraction in German GDP. Read more
The latest GDP reading from Japan contains nothing but ugly numbers. The headline annual GDP growth rate is -6.8%. While analysts have stated they were expecting this number as a result of the sales tax increase earlier this year, that really doesn’t provide enough of a balm to the terrible number. Read more
The dollar fell after weaker U.S. retail sales data, taking EUR-USD briefly over 1.3400, and USD-JPY to session lows of 102.24. The greenback subsequently recovered some ground however, as relative quiet on the geopolitical front allowed Wall Street to Rally nicely. Read more
