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The dollar was again mixed in N.Y. trade on Thursday, losing ground to the euro, pound and CHF, while posting modest gains versus the yen and CAD. U.S. data was a bit worse than expectations, as jobless claims rose, and durable goods orders were soft (though better ex-trans). Read more
EUR-USD dropped to two-week lows under 1.3650 amid a broad bout of euro selling on news that the acting president of the Ukraine warned Russia not to consider military intervention in Crimea, which follows the U.S. warning to Moscow that such as course would be a "grave mistake." EUR-JPY shed over 100 pips in making a two-week low of 138.79 and EUR-CHF has logged a two-month low of 1.2157. Read more
The AUD came under pressure following Q4 capital expenditure data that showed a 5.2% decline, worse than the median forecast for -1.3% and down from +3.6% in the previous quarter. The data prompted downward revisions to Australian Q4 GDP forecasts. AUD-USD dropped to a 17-day low of 0.8917, and remained under 0.8950 thereafter. Read more
The dollar firmed up broadly in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, taking EUR-USD under the 1.3700 mark for the first time in a week, and USD-JPY back over 102.60, after again finding support ahead of 102.00. Euro stops were tripped up at 1.3680, and subsequently, better U.S. Read more
So, was I surprised by this morning's new home sales number, which was the highest in five years? Yes. There's part of me that thinks the first digit was a mistake! That being said, does it contradict my thesis that higher mortgage rates are causing a housing slowdown? No. The month to month variability in the new home sales report is very volatile among the major housing reports. Read more
Above is a chart of the USD/JPY pair for the last six months. Notice three clear technical events. 1.) The pair rallied from ~97.25 to 105.25 from late October to the end of December. 2.) Traders took profits, sending the pair down to the ~101 level by the end of January. 3.) The pair has been trading in a consolidating triangle pattern since the beginning of February. Read more
Another low in the CNY was the main development as the main currencies traded in narrow ranges. EUR-USD mostly flat-lined at familiar levels in the mid-1.37s, having quickly unwound a pop high to 1.3757, and USD-JPY was steady in the mid-to-low 102s. Cable retuned to near net-unchanged levels on the day after dipping in the initial wake of the second-estimate U.K. Read more
Another low in the CNY was the main development as the main currencies traded in narrow ranges during the Asian session ahead of the European open. EUR-USD flat-lined at familiar levels in the mid-1.37s, USD-JPY was steady in the mid-to-low 102s, and Cable made time in the upper 1.66s, all remaining comfortably within the previous days ranges. Read more
The dollar was choppy through the session, though ended not very far from where it started. The major European currencies were extremely whippy at mid-morning, as the dollar rallied, then fell back fairly sharply versus the euro, pound and CHF. EUR-USD ran into sellers over 1.3760, and fell back t0 1.3715, as U.S. Read more
Real retail sales have declined by nearly 1% in the last two months. How concerned should we be? Let's leave aside for purposes of this post speculating on how much of the decline might be due to unusually poor winter weather in most of the US. How serious have similar declines been shown to be in the past? Real retail sales themselves (divided by 2 YoY) are a fairly good harbinger of employment, as shown in this graph of the last 20 years: Thus in the next few months we might expect particularly poor (for this cycle) nonfarm payrolls. Beyond that, real retail sales per capita (i.e., how much are individuals spending vs. Read more
 The pair rallied from ~97.25 to 105.25 from late October to the end of December.
2.) Traders took profits, sending the pair down to the ~101 level by the end of January.
3.) The pair has been trading in a consolidating triangle pattern since the beginning of February.&p[images][0]=http://xecommunityassets.s3.amazonaws.com/untitled_1.png){kind=link}
 are a fairly good harbinger of employment, as shown in this graph of the last 20 years:
Thus in the next few months we might expect particularly poor (for this cycle) nonfarm payrolls.
Beyond that, real retail sales per capita (i.e., how much are individuals spending vs.&p[images][0]=/system/files/styles/large/s3/image_48.jpg?itok=V34bSyRP){kind=link}