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Yellen's Speech Indicates Far Broader Employment Analysis Is Needed

By: HaleStewart

This Friday is NFP day; statistics for US payrolls will be released at 8:30 AM EST. The market will spend the entire day parsing the data. However, the headline unemployment number will -- as usual -- be the main story. I have grown to loathe this data release, largely because of the obsession with the unemployment rate at the expense of a far deeper reading of employment data. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 31, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The principle move was a EUR-JPY rally that reflected mostly across-the-board yen weakness and a lesser degree of general euro firmness. This brought associated gains in USD-JPY and EUR-USD, leaving the USD on a mixed footing versus its major counterparts. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 31, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Lots of news but little market movement among the dollar majors today in pre-London Asian trade. EUR-USD has been hovering around the 1.3750 area, and USD-JPY has been flat-lining around 102.80-90. The AUD dipped to its lowest level against the USD since last Wednesday, making a low of 0.9218, which is about 30 pips down on last week's New York closing level. Read more

Weekly Indicators: is the meme "green shoots" already taken? edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

Monthly news for February featured new and pending home sales, both down.  Evertything else was positive, including home prices, both measures of consumer confidence, durable goods, personal income, and personal spending.   Read more

International Week In Review: The Case For Slow But Continuing Growth Continues

By: HaleStewart

Let's start this week's post with a look at the EU, where deflationary forces continue to mount. French PPI printed -.1% M/M while Italy's PPI decreased 1.4% Y/Y and Germany's CPI was 1% Y/Y. Adding to the downward pressure was the decrease in private loans of 2.2% on a Y/Y basis -- for a region that is heavily dependent on loan issuance for the increase in its monetary base, the weak loan readings are very concerning. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 28, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar reversed some of the moves it had seen the prior 24-hours in N.Y. trade on Friday, taking EUR-USD from 1.3705 lows to a high of 1.3773, and USD-JPY up to 102.97, from Asian lows under 102.10. The dollar bloc, which had ramped higher on Wednesday and Thursday on the back of hopes for China stimulus, appeared to have overshot to the upside, and profit taking reversed a good bit of the CAD and AUD's gains on Friday. Read more

Forecasting the economy: housing permits vs. real fixed private residential investment

By: New_Deal_democrat

Bill McBride a/k/a the nicest blogger on the internet argues (http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/03/update-predicting-next-recession.html) that a recession is nowhere near, partly because real private residential investment will turn down in advance, and he expects it to pick up this year, because there haven't been any Fed policy errors, because fiscal drag especially from the states is ending, and because there haven't been any (well, sufficient) fiscal policy errors. Mind you, I don't see a recession this year either (the long leading indicators are still generally positive), and I have complete respect for Bill, but there are pretty good reasons to doubt each of those statements. In this post, let's take a look at real private fixed residential investment. Real fixed private residential investment, particularly as measured as a percent of real GDP, was identified in 2007 by UCLA Prof. Read more

UK Economy Is Hitting Its Stride

By: HaleStewart

Recent economic numbers from the UK indicate the economy is starting to hit its stride.  Let's start with today's GDP release: Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 28, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

More of the same today, with the AUD leading fresh gains in the dollar bloc currencies and the euro sinking to fresh lows. EUR-USD dove to 1.3705, breaching the Mar-5 low on route and putting the euro at its lowest level since late February. An unexpected drop to a negative y/y reading Spanish inflation was the spark, followed by a deceleration in regional German inflation figures. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 28, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The AUD, NZD and CAD saw fresh highs, while the USD majors saw mostly featureless trade in the period since the New York close yesterday. Japan's heavy data slate was largely upbeat, as CPI accelerated, unemployment fell and retail sales improved. This helped support Japanese and Asian equity markets, and indirectly the aforementioned dollar bloc currencies. Read more


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