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By New_Deal_democrat July 1, 2016 10:39 am
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Solid JUne ISM report adds to evidence that shallow industrial recession is over
The ISM manufacturing index came in at a respectable 53.2 this morning.  Perhaps more importantly, the new orders index came in at a very strong 57.0.  Here is the chart supplied by the ISM:
 
 
With the exception of contracting inventories, every other reading says a manufacturing sector that is in solid expansion, and as I have pointed out in the past, the inventory reading tends to hit maximum contraction right at the end of recessions, so this significant rebound is also evidence of a positive turn in manufacturing.
 
Unfortunately, it appears that the ISM has revoked its permission for its data to be shared by the St. Louis FRED, so I don't have any updated graphs, but the 60 year history can be found in my post here from one month ago:
 
This marks the second month in a row in which the national ISM has been contrary to the weaker regional Fed readings.  Most likely some of this is due to the fact that only 5 Fed regions, most notably excluding Chicago and California, report.
 
The bottom line is, this is more evidence that the shallow industrial recession is over, but again the proof will be in the Industrial Production pudding.
 
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