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By New_Deal_democrat November 13, 2015 10:56 am
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A renewed deflatioinary pulse
This morning's economic reports are just the latest sign that there has been a renewed deflationary pulse in the US and global economy in the last several months.
 
To begin with, producer prices declined again (blue in the graph below). We can expect consumer prices (red) to follow suit (at a lesser rate) when they are reported next week:

 
It isn't just oil.  Here is the Bloomberg industrial metals index, which just set yet another new 5 year low:
 
 
The mirror image, of course, with an assist from increasing certainty of imminent Fed tightening, is that the US$ has strengthened yet again, right up through this week:
 
 
So the weekly AAR rail freight report has declined further (blue) compared with last year (red):
 
 
Trucking, from the Cass Trucking Index, has similarly lurched lower compared with last year in the last 2 months:
 
 
And business inventories, reported this morning, rose +0.3% in September, meaning a renewed increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio:
 
 
The bright spot is that the world champion US consumer continues to show why they deserve their gold medal, as real retail sales even per capita made yet another new high in September, and if the CPI shows any decline next week (which is likely) set yet another high in October:
 
 
although, to be fair, it is flattening out somewhat.
 
This doesn't mean the US economy faces imminent DOOM! as if it were the Titanic having struck an iceberg.  But is has taken on more water, and is settling lower to the water surface as it proceeds forward.
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