Above is a weekly chart of oil. It formed a double bottom on two dips in January and March around the 42-43 price level. Candles are approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci level and are now above the 10 and 20 day weekly EMAs. Although it is still negative, the MACD is rising. Right now, the most logical, short-term price target 50 week EMA (green line).
As oil’s price starts to increase, expect a change in central bank inflation language. For the last 6-9 months, public statements have focused on the transitory nature of these price drops and their inflationary impact. Now, expect a general change in tone to one focusing on the positive impact on prices. Eventually, this will lead to an increase in rates.
Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog. He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies. You can follow him on twitter at:@captivelawyer