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By HaleStewart May 12, 2015 8:19 am
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Oil Has Bottomed; Now What?

 

Above is a weekly chart of oil.  It formed a double bottom on two dips in January and March around the 42-43 price level.  Candles are approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci level and are now above the 10 and 20 day weekly EMAs.  Although it is still negative, the MACD is rising.  Right now, the most logical, short-term price target 50 week EMA (green line).

As oil’s price starts to increase, expect a change in central bank inflation language.  For the last 6-9 months, public statements have focused on the transitory nature of these price drops and their inflationary impact.  Now, expect a general change in tone to one focusing on the positive impact on prices.  Eventually, this will lead to an increase in rates.  

Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog.  He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies.   You can follow him on twitter at:@captivelawyer 

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