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By New_Deal_democrat June 23, 2017 10:35 am
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New home sales confirm slowdown - but not negative

In my reports on housing permits and starts over the last week, I pointed out the added importance of today's new home sales report.  Permits and starts both turned south to new 12 month lows and single family permits at least slowed to a 6 month low.  Would new home sales, which are much more volatile and heavily revised, but if anything slightly more leading, confirm a slowdown or even a negative turn?

Now we have the result: last month's big downturn was revised up significantly (par for the course), and this month was a slight improvement.

BUT, we still have had a slight downturn in the seasonally adjusted monthly numbers:

Further, when we calculate the less volatile three month moving average, we find that it is the lowest in 3 months:

Here are the calculations:

Nov-Jan: 575

Dec-Feb: 587

Jan-Mar: 619

Feb-Apr: 617

Mar-May: 616

So the good news is that new home sales have not confirmed the outright negative readings of permits and starts. The so-so news is that the slowdown is confirmed.

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