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By New_Deal_democrat September 3, 2014 1:38 pm
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Is this the month the unemployment rate finally falls below 6%?

The Conference Board publishes an  Employment Trends Index which is designed to show the trend in employment some months into the future:

 
 
As you can see, it is forecasting continued good employment growth.
 
Meanwhile, initial jobless claims have continued for the 5th month in a row to be at post-recession lows:
 
 
When you adjust initial claims by population (in the graph below, by the civilian labor force plus those who want a job but aren't looking), they are at multi-decade lows:
 
 
Initial jobless claims, particularly as adjusted by population, are a good leading indicator for the unemployment rate, which tends to follow the trend in initial claims by several months.  Here's a graph focusing on that correlation beginning in 2010:
 
 
This tells us that there is an excellent chance that the unemployment rate is going to fall to fresh post-recession lows, probably under 6.0%, either on Friday or in the next several months. The broader U6 rate including underemployed and discouraged workers should fall similarly.  
 
And while a 5.9% unemployment rate wouldn't indicate a boom in employment, it puts us back into what has been considered within a normal, non-recessionary range.
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