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By HaleStewart November 4, 2013 8:02 am
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International Macro Sweep of Economic Numbers, Week of October 28-November 1

Perhaps most importantly, last week we saw some strong numbers coming out of Japan that indicate “Abebomics” continues to pay dividends for the Japanese economy.  Retail sales increased 3.1% year over year (YOY) while industrial production increased 1.5% month over month (MOM) and 5.4% YOY.  The Markit manufacturing survey increased to 54.2, the highest rate since December 2009.  And finally, the central bank announced they would continue the policy of doubling the monetary base by the end of next year.  All of the numbers released are bullish for the macro level economy, but the central banks actions continue to be yen neutral or negative.

India raised rates an additional 25 basis points, as their new central bank head continues to establish his inflation-fighting bona fides.  The Indian stock market has recently rallied, indicating the market as a whole feels this new direction will pay off in the long-run.

The Spanish economy printed a .1% Q/Q increase in GDP.  While certainly not a gangbusters rate, this is the first Q/Q positive number we’ve seen from Spain in over 8 quarters.

The EU may be facing a deflation problem, as the harmonized CPI printed at .7% for September.  This is nearly half the May rate of 1.6%.  Traders are starting to make bets that the EU will have to lower rates further to stem the possibility of a potential deflation threat.

Canada printed a .3% GDP growth rate.  The Canadian economy has been showing signs of weakness for the last 6-9 months.  While a recession is certainly not imminent, the economy is having a very difficult time growing faster than 1.5% for the last four quarters.

Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog.  He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies.   You can follow him on twitter at:@captivelawyer

 

 

 

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