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By HaleStewart September 21, 2014 8:20 am
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International Economic Preview For the Week of September 22-26

     The following are the more important economic events of the week of September 22-26

Monday

Mario Draghi speaks: Draghi has slowly been advocating additional stimulus in the wake of the EUs potential secular slowdown.  He has recently advocated for additional government spending (within the confines of the EU’s financial stability pact) and has also announced additional central bank measures to encourage growth.  Keep your ears open to the possibility of additional measures on Monday.

US existing home sales: the US housing market has bounced off the bottom, but is running into headwinds of higher interest rates, stagnating incomes and labor under-utilization.  The overall pace has been increasing since the spring, so the real thing to watch for is if this number continues to move higher.

Tuesday

Markit EU manufacturing and service numbers. Any significant data on the EU has taken on a heightened sense of importance because of the increasing possibility that the region is either in or about to enter a deflationary spiral.  Adding to the problems are a potential slowdown in Germany and recent contractionary readings from France.

Wednesday

Japan CSPI: one of the three arrows of Abenomics is to increase inflation – a task with the BOJ has helped to engineer with the massive increase in the monetary base.  The CSPI and other inflation gauges have responded, but recent increases appear to be slowing.  This report’s details will be very important to ascertain whether further slowing of the increases is in the cards.

Thursday

US durable goods: the last reading of this number was heavily influenced by aircraft orders.  Without those numbers, this data point would still be printing within the same range it has been for the last year.  Pay attention to whether or not this indicator moves above or below its range of the last year.

Japan national core CPI: see commentary on CSPI.

Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog.  He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies.   You can follow him on twitter at:@captivelawyer

 

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