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By HaleStewart November 9, 2014 9:11 am
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International Economic Preview For the Week of November 10-14

     The following economic events will have a dis-proportionate impact on trading for the week of November 10-14:

Tuesday

Japanese Machine Orders: Ever since the over 7% contraction in 2Q GDP, the Japanese economic numbers have been concerning, pointing to at best a stalling of Prime Minister Abe’s economic revival plan.  Machine tool orders are a great leading economic indicator.  Here is last month’s domestic numbers:

Domestic orders rose by 17.2% over August, amounting to 49.14 billion yen. This marked the first month of month-on-month growth in two months. This figure was also an increase of 16.3% over the same month of the previous year and marked the fifteenth consecutive month of year-on-year growth.

Wednesday

EU Industrial Production: IP is one of the best coincident indicators for a developed country.  Unfortunately, recent news from the EU manufacturing sector has been downbeat.  Sentiment is declining and the latest Markit numbers have been just barely positive.  On top of that, the overall level of industrial production in the EU region is still far below pre-recession levels:

Bank of England Inflation Report: this report will provide insight on the BOE’s inflation projections as well as their forecasts for overall UK growth. 

Japanese CGPI: one of the central tenants to Abe’s economic plan for Japan is to increase inflation with the hope this would lead to increased consumer spending.  However, the CGPI, like other inflation measures, has slowed in its month to month increases over the last 5-6 months.

Japanese Industrial Production: this coincident indicator has been in a downtrend since the first of the year, with only a few months of gains. 

Friday

EU CPI and GDP: the EU is perilously close to a triple dip recession and/or a deflationary spiral.  Obviously, both of these indicators would provide key data on both of these situations.

Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog.  He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies.   You can follow him on twitter at:@captivelawyer

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