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By HaleStewart June 1, 2015 8:25 am
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International Economic Preview For the Week of May 25-29

     The following economic releases will have a disproportionate impact on the markets next week

Monday

EU Final Markit Manufacturing Numbers: starting at the beginning of the year, these numbers started to show a slow but consistent expansion for the EU region.  Now, save for France, the four largest EU economies are expanding.

US ISM Manufacturing: Although the top line number has been declining for the last 6 months, the overall reading is still over 50, indicating an expansion.  However, with the dollar still strong, don’t be surprised to see the number move lower.

Australian Interest Rate Decision: The RBA recently lowered rates 25 basis point.  There is no reason to think another rate cut is in the cards.  But pay particular attention to the release’s language.

Tuesday

EU Inflation: like other advanced economies, the EU experienced a bout of deflation thanks to oil’s price drop.  But the latest Y/Y number was 0%.  Hopefully we’ll see a slight Y/Y increase in this release.

Australia First Quarter GDP: Thanks to exports to China, Australia has had a remarkable 20 year run of expansions without recession.  However, they are running into some problems as they try to change the composition of their growth.

Wednesday

EU Interest Rate Decision: no change is expected.  However, like all central bank policy statements, pay attention to the banks analysis of the current economic situation.

US ISM Service Index: the US service sector has been humming along for several years.  There is no reason to see any major change to this number, save for statistical noise.

Thursday

UK Interest Rate Decision: Like both Australia and EU, there is no reason to think a major change is coming. 

Friday

Canadian Unemployment: the Canadian unemployment rate has been fluctuating between 6.7-7.1 for the last year.  Oil’s price drop will probably lead to an increase in the unemployment rate.

US Employment report: the US unemployment rate has been dropping for the last year. While employment growth slowed in the 1Q, better numbers are expected.

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