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By HaleStewart March 30, 2015 8:19 am
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International Economic Preview For the Week of March 30-April 3

     The following economic releases will have a disproportionate impact on the markets this week.


EU Inflation and Unemployment: no two economic statistics highlight the EU's problems better than these two numbers.  The combination shows there is a tremendous amount of economic slack, which the EU is attempting to close with its QE program.

Canadian GDP: The Canadian central bank recently lowered rates 25 basis points in an economic preemptive strike against the drop in oil prices.  Pay particular attention to energy related sub-parts of this report.

Final China manufacturing PMI: this number has been fluctuating around the 50 level that separates readings between expansion and contraction.  The Chinese government has publicly stated GDP will grow around 7% this year.  They will need the manufacturing sector in positive territory to reach that goal.


Markit EU releases: these numbers provide good, macro level snapshots of the EU and individual countries.   Pay attention to the French manufacturing number, as this sector has been in a contraction for several months.

US ISM: this is the US equivalent of the Markit numbers.   Each report contains a section that provides anecdotal quotes from participants.  Look for any indication that the strong dollar is negatively impacting export orders.   

Australian Exports: The Australian economy was a big beneficiary of Chinese growth.  But as China slowed, so have Australian exports.


US Payrolls: although the unemployment rate has dropped to good levels, the underlying numbers contained in the report (wages, employment/population ratio) indicates a large amount of slack still exists in the US labor market.  Pay close attention to these lesser reported numbers.   

Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog.  He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies.   You can follow him on twitter at:@captivelawyer  

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