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By HaleStewart March 16, 2015 8:25 am
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International Economic Preview For the Week of March 16-20

     The following news releases will have a disproportionate impact on the financial markets this week.

Monday

US Industrial Production: US IP has been increasing at a remarkably consistent rate since emerging from the recession.  The latest ISM manufacturing numbers point to continued strength in this coincident indicator.

Australian Central Bank Meeting Minutes: the RBA has stated publicly (via previous public announcements) that the Australian economy is growing at below potential rates.  Look to see if there is increasing concern within the RBA about the Australia economy, especially as it tries to transition from a raw materials exporter to a more balanced economy.

Tuesday

Japan: leading and coincident indicators: both of these are released by the BOJ.  While the coincident number has been increasing over the last few months, the leading index has been stagnating.

EU Inflation: the consistent downward march of the Y/Y number eventually pressed the ECB to engage in quantitative easing.  With energy prices cratering over the last 6-9 months along with weak EU growth, expect this number to continue printing weak readings.

US Housing Starts: although the US housing market has emerged from its sharp drop which was a primary cause of the latest recession, it is still struggling to emerge from its deep contraction.

Wednesday

Japan Monthly Report: this is a monthly compendium of statistics published by the BOJ on the Japanese economy.  It contains a wealth of long and short-term information on the Japanese economy, along with a BOJ commentary.

UK Unemployment Rate: this number has been consistently decreasing for the last year, falling from over 7% to its current level of 5.7%. 

Thursday

EU Economic Bulletin: like the BOJ report mentioned above, this is an ECB report which contains a treasure trove of EU data points along with special sections of current topics of interest.

US LEIs: while the leading indexes are often maligned by professional traders and economists, they have an incredibly strong track record of being right.  The coincident economic indicators are also released with this report

Japan Meeting Minutes: although Japan has been aggressively trying to reverse the effects of over 20 years of deflationary pressure, they are still running into headwinds.  And while the BOJ will be very circumspect in publicizing any concern, it’s possible some might slip through the cracks.  Keep your eyes open.

Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog.  He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies.   You can follow him on twitter at:@captivelawyer  

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