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By New_Deal_democrat August 16, 2016 11:10 am
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Industrial production confirms shallow indsutrial recession bottomed in March

There is enough evidence now to conclude to a reasonable certainty that the shallow industrial recession bottomed in March.

Industrial production rose +0.7% in July (June was revised down by -0.2% to +0.4%).  Here's what industrial production looks like for the last 5 years: 


July was a 9 month high, and means that production has made up nearly half of the ground it lost since the shallow industrial recession started near the end of 2014. 

When we break out production into manufacturing (blue in the graph below) and mining (red), normed to 100 as of December 2014 when mining was at its peak:

we can see that manufacturing not only never really participated in the downturn -- and is now at a new all-time high -- but mining also bottomed about 3 months ago. 

Another factotum comes from yesterday's Empire State manufacturing report as to new orders:

Not only has August show an increase in new orders, but the 3 month average has remained positive as well.


Finally, not only have commodities bottomed as of February:

but very much unlike 2014-15, the US$ has trended sideways to slightly declining this year, even after Brexit, meaning that it is at very least no longer a drag on industrial production:


Sorry, Doomers, you'll have to move on to your next fixation.  The shallow industrial recession ended in March.

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