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By New_Deal_democrat January 17, 2014 11:00 am
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Housing permits and starts record lowest YoY improvement since May 2011
The last report for housing permits and starts for the year 2013 is in, and it shows that the deceleration in growth since mortgage interest rates started to increase has continued.

Housing permits came in at 986,000 only 43,000 or +4.6% higher YoY.  Starts came in at 999,000, only 13,000 or 1.6% higher YoY.

 

So here is the "Graph of the Year" for 2014, showing the YoY% change in housing permits (blue), starts (green) and mortgage interest rates (red, right scale) at the end of 2013:

Here is the same information, this time quarterly to smooth out some of the noise, and measured by the YoY change in the number of housing units (iin thousandsa):

Notice that the decelerating trend started at mid-year 2012, and the YoY% deceleration is about 20%. If this trend continues, then by the end of the first half 2014, permits and starts should have declined at some point about 10% YoY or -100,000 units.

And I believe the trend will continue.

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