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By New_Deal_democrat November 6, 2015 10:00 am
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Employment report, plus houses and cars, supports no US downturn
This morning's jobs report was so good that it is a worthwhile counterweight to the increasing glee in the Doomer recession camp.
 
I decided to take a look at how long it took for the economy to enter recession after a monthly increase of 271,000 (today's report) or more.  I started in October 1945 after the big WW2 demobilization.  Here is 1945-80:
 
 
and here is 1980 - present:
 
 
To cut to the chase, the minimum number of months after a report equal or better to today's until a recession began was 7 months, in 1969, 1979, and 1990. Three other times it was 10 or 11 months. The remaining times it was over 1 year.
 
This is in accord with what I've been saying about houses and cars carrying the economy.  As to housing, while September new home sales were poor, that series is very volatile and subject to serious (e.g., 5% or more revisions).  When we look at single family permits (unaffected by the expiration of the NYC building permit program) and starts, we see that the positive trend is intact:
 
 
And auto sales just had another great month in October (graph courtesy Calculated Risk):
 
 
The bottom line is that today's employment report adds to the evidence that the weakness in the US economy stemming from the strong US$ is not sufficient to tip the US into recession.
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