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By HaleStewart January 21, 2014 5:57 pm
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Australia's Employment Problems Are Mounting

Earlier this month, the Australian employment report published a big miss, sending the Australian dollar lower.  However, a deeper look into the relevant statistics indicates the Australian employment picture is dimming and has been doing so for a bit longer than admitted.

Let’s start with a look at the overall employment change.  6 of the last 10 monthly reports have shown a drop.  While one month would be a statistical aberration, a 60% miss rate over 10 months is an indication of a deeper problem.

In addition, the unemployment rate has been slowly ticking up for the last 18 months.  While the current levels are hardly panic-inducing, they do indicate some basic problems are occurring.

In addition, the labor participation rate has been dropping since the end of last summer.

And finally, the number of employed people has been stuck for the last year.

As mentioned above, none of these numbers indicates the economy is anywhere near melting down.   But the sum total of these numbers indicates the Australian economy is weaker than admitted.

Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog.  He is also a tax attorney with a domestic and international practice while also forming and managing captive insurance companies for US companies.   You can follow him on twitter at:@captivelawyer

 

 

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