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The dollar has been in rally mode today, especially against the euro and kiwi dollar, currencies that have both been left reeling following weekend election results in Germany and New Zealand, respectively. EUR-USD dove to a one-month low of 1.1793. Read more
USD-JPY tumbled to around 111.50 after North Korea said Trump's threats of last week were tantamount to a declaration of war. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also dropped as the yen's safe haven premium came back into play. We expect USD-JPY, which is coming out of a five big figure rally from early September levels near 107.0, to remain heavy for now. Read more
OVERVIEW Sterling opened lower today after Moody's downgraded the UK's sovereign rating late on Friday. The Euro is firmly on the backfoot after the German election results over the weekend. FED member Dudley says US economy is in a pretty good place. Read more
The dollar firmed up some in N.Y. on Monday, taking the DXY to 92.72 highs, levels last seen on September 5. The notable exception was USD-JPY, which fell from over 112.30 to under 111.50 as N. Korea equated Trump's recent comments to a declaration of war, saying it had the right to shoot down U.S. Read more
The euro has come under across-the-board pressure following the German election result, which has left Merkel in place as Chancellor but in a weakened position, heralding a lengthy period of coalition-building talks. The September German Ifo business confidence survey also underwhelmed. Read more
The euro has come under pressure following the election in German, which produced the expected win for Merkel but saw her party and the SPD coalition partner lose ground to the nationalist AfD, the upshot of which is political uncertainty as there is no easy coalition options. Read more
The OECD released their latest global growth forecast this week, calling for a slight uptick in overall activity. OECD GDP is projected to be 3.5% this year – the highest in four years. Russia and Brazil are projected to grow as well. But global structural issues remain. Read more
There are four elements of a time series: the actual trend (which is determined using moving averages of various lengths), cyclical movements (regular events that occur over more than 12-months), seasonal movements (regular events that occur over less than 12 months) and irregular events. Read more
August data included an increase in the Index of Leading Indicators, helped in part by an increase in housing permits and starts. Existing homes sales declined. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more
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