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The easy money is gone from the market. While 5-6 years ago (and even 2-3 year ago) you could find bargains (companies with strong earnings potential that were also cheap from a PE perspective), none really exist anymore. In fact, the market is actually pretty expensive by standard valuation metrics. Read more
The dollar was mostly firmer through the N.Y. session on Friday, as a lowered, but better than forecast Q4 GDP revision helped the greenback, while a soft Chicago PMI print was partially offset by better Michigan sentiment and pending home sales data. Read more
The news flow this week was remarkably light, with the US printing the bulk of the information. Most of the news was related to the housing market, with the Case/Shiller new home price index coming in at 4.5% Y/Y rate, existing home sales dropping 4.5% and new home sales decreasing .2% M/M: The conclusion from this news is that the US housing market, while it has recovered somewhat, is still in a slump. Read more
The first revision of 4Q 2014 GDP was reported this morning. Generally it was a "meh," not changing much, although the small decline was mainly due to there being less of an increase in inventories, which is a wash. Read more
EUR-USD found a toehold after yesterday's sharp dive to a 1.183 low, recovering above 1.1200. The baseline message from Feb boss Yellen's testimonies this week was that the Fed is in not immediate rush to tighten policy, but with Bund yields hitting fresh record lows on Thursday, the dollar's yield advantage continues to hold up, rebounding above 170 bp from levels near 160 bp over the last day at the 10-year T-note versus Bund level. Read more
The dollar moved broadly higher in N.Y. on Thursday, with EUR-USD losses leading the way. The market got a head start on the imminent ECB QE kickoff, as German yields fell to record lows, widening the differential in favor of the dollar, and setting off a slow but steady EUR-USD sell-off. Read more
On January 8, with Oil prices at about $48/barrel, I wrote that http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-bottom-in-gas-prices-is-close.html The Bottom in Gas Prices is Close, saying: Read more
The dollar has traded mixed in London, losing ground to the yen, while firming up versus the CAD and pound. EUR-USD plied a narrow range, centered by the 1.1350 level. Following Fed chief Yellen's testimonies this week, which sent the baseline message that the Fed is in not immediate rush to tighten policy, the dollar's yield advantage has shrunk to the 162 bp area at the 10-year T-note versus Bund level, down about 10-13 bp from Monday. Read more
The dollar has traded mixed, firmer against the yen and Aussie, but lower against the euro and sterling. EUR-USD traded to the upper 1.13 regions. Following Feb boss Yellen's testimonies this week, which sent the baseline message that the Fed is in not immediate rush to tighten policy, the dollar's yield advantage has shrank to the 162 bp area at the 10-year T-note versus Bund level, down about 10-13 bp from Monday levels. Read more
