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The OECD released their latest global growth forecast this week, calling for a slight uptick in overall activity. OECD GDP is projected to be 3.5% this year – the highest in four years. Russia and Brazil are projected to grow as well. But global structural issues remain. Read more
There are four elements of a time series: the actual trend (which is determined using moving averages of various lengths), cyclical movements (regular events that occur over more than 12-months), seasonal movements (regular events that occur over less than 12 months) and irregular events. Read more
August data included an increase in the Index of Leading Indicators, helped in part by an increase in housing permits and starts. Existing homes sales declined. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more
The dollar was marginally firmer in N.Y. trade on Friday, with end of week position squaring behind the move. EUR-USD slipped under 1.1940 from over 1.1980 at the open, while USD-JPY stumbled early, reportedly on pre-weekend safe-haven yen buying the driver. Read more
USD-JPY dove under 112.00 in Tokyo trading after North Korea threatened to detonate an H-bomb in the Pacific. The pair left a low at 111.65 before settling and recouping the 112.00 level during the London AM session. The dollar posted declines against other currencies. Read more
The dollar has traded softer, correcting some following the sharp gains seen in the wake of the Fed's hawkish turn on Wednesday. EUR-USD nudged above 1.1960, up over a big figure form the post-Fed low, and USD-JPY tipped to a low of 111.65, correcting after rallying in eight of the previous nine sessions and putting distance in from yesterday's two-month peak at 112.71. Read more
The dollar gave back some of its post-FOMC gains seen on Wednesday, losing modest ground to all the major currencies. The move came despite decent U.S. data, which saw jobless claims below expectations, and a firmer Philly Fed index and leading indicators. Read more
OVERVIEW USD had rallied strongly after FOMC announced an end to Q.E. and signaled a further rate rise. GBP firm after BBC reports PM May will announce €20 billion payments to EU. CAD recovering from a post-Fed dip on strong domestic data. Read more
This is the conclusion of my examination of housing permits and starts for August. Yesterday I noted that the good news in overall permits was not confirmed by the less volatile but equally leading single family permits, was not confirmed by starts, and was not confirmed when we remove the hurricane-affected South (where, paradoxically, builders may have accelerated taking out permits before the storms, as the relevant offices were likely to be disrupted for weeks afterward). I wanted to follow up with one final note: in the past I have noted that single family permits typically peak before multi-family permits. Read more
, cyclical movements (regular events that occur over more than 12-months), seasonal movements (regular events that occur over less than 12 months) and irregular events.&p[images][0]=http://xecommunityassets.s3.amazonaws.com/NSA%20Claims.png){kind=link}
&p[url]=/blog/xe-market-analysis/august-housing-permits-and-starts-restrain-your-enthusiasm-part-2-2&p[summary]=This is the conclusion of my examination of housing permits and starts for August. Yesterday I noted that the good news in overall permits was not confirmed by the less volatile but equally leading single family permits, was not confirmed by starts, and was not confirmed when we remove the hurricane-affected South (where, paradoxically, builders may have accelerated taking out permits before the storms, as the relevant offices were likely to be disrupted for weeks afterward).
I wanted to follow up with one final note: in the past I have noted that single family permits typically peak before multi-family permits.&p[images][0]=/s3/files/styles/large/s3/image_1114.jpg?itok=Ra520xMA){kind=link}