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EUR-USD logged a three-day low at 1.1504 ahead of the London open as markets prepare for the ECB's policy announcement today, which is likely to signal largely unchanged dovish-leaning guidance while acknowledging economic improvement. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses have been holding up better, however, suggesting that markets are mostly satisfied with their positioning in the common currency. Read more
The dollar slumped in N.Y trade on Thursday, with action led by the ECB announcement and press conference, which saw EUR-USD rally to near two-year highs of 1.1658. Chief Draghi attired things up as he attempted to downplay timing and details of next policy moves, the upbeat comments on EU economic strength, and the fact that everyone knows tapering is coming, all allowed the euro to rise. Read more
OVERVIEW The ECB kept monetary policy on hold as expected but unexpectedly kept their guidance unchanged. The Euro hit its highest level since August 2015. UK retail sales were stronger than expected in June, rising 0.6% from May. UK trade minister says the UK could survive without an EU trade deal, reigniting concern over a hard Brexit. South Africa's central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 0.25% The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy on hold, but once again pushed back the timing for achieving its 2% inflation target. Australia's labor market strengthened for a fourth month in June, adding to signs of faster economic activity. Brazil's annual inflation rate fell to just 2.8% in July, its lowest level in 18 years. HIGHLIGHT The Euro surged higher following the announcement from ECB President, Mario Draghi, who said that tapering discussions are likely to happen in the Autumn. Read more
The dollar traded firmer today, rebounding from intraday weakness in the cases against the pound and Australian dollars. EUR-USD slipped to three-day lows under 1.1500 as markets prepare for the ECB's policy announcement today. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses have been holding up better, however, suggesting that markets are mostly satisfied with their positioning in the common currency. Read more
EUR-USD logged a three-day low at 1.1504 ahead of the London open as markets prepare for the ECB's policy announcement today, which is likely to signal largely unchanged dovish-leaning guidance while acknowledging economic improvement. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses have been holding up better, however, suggesting that markets are mostly satisfied with their positioning in the common currency. Read more
The dollar steadied some in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, leaving the DXY slightly higher. EUR-USD eased back to 1.1510 lows, largely on position squaring activity ahead of Thursday's ECB announcement and press conference. USD-JPY printed three-week lows of 111.56, before moving back over 111.80 on a higher Wall Street. Read more
OVERVIEW Major currencies are generally quiet, though the Australian Dollar hit a fresh 2-year high versus the US Dollar. U.S. homebuilding rebounded more than expected in June, ending three months of declines. Canadian manufacturing sales rose to a record level in May due to higher sales of motor vehicles and parts. Read more
Last month the housing permits and starts report was poor enough for me to score it a negative. Further, because neither permits nor starts had made new highs since winter, it was sufficient to tip the scales in how I look at the long leading indicators. Today's report for June was improved, enough for me to score it a neutral, but because it is still below winter's levels, I cannot score it a positive, and it does not change my overall long term outlook. Since FRED doesn't have the data up yet, I'll use the Census Bureau site graph and tables. First, here's the graph. Read more
EUR-USD logged an intraday low at 1.1514 before recouping above 1.1530, leaving yesterday's 1.1511 low unchallenged. EUR-JPY, EUR-GBP and other euro crosses saw a similar price action. The move comes ahead of the ECB's policy meeting tomorrow, with markets anticipating a "no change yet in guidance" message from President Draghi, with policymakers likely to take comfort from low inflation. Read more
