Home > XE Currency Blog > XE Currency Blog - Market Analysis & Forex News
This was a light economic news week for the U.S. economy. The most important news came from the Conference Board, which released the latest LEI and CEI numbers on Thursday. On Wednesday, The Census Bureau released building permits and housing starts data. Read more
For the duration of this expansion, the Federal Reserve has continually predicted an increasing pace of inflation. While their overall rate of projections has trended somewhat lower during the last five years, they still believe inflation will be somewhat higher in the next 12 to 18 months. Read more
The overall tenor of news from the big G7 economies continues to be modestly bullish. The EU, continues to grow at a slightly above trend pace, continuing a trend that started in the fourth quarter of 2016. On the other side of the globe, Japan and Australia continue their modest expansions. Read more
June data was sparse, but an improvement in both housing permits and starts was enough for the most positive reading of the Index of Leading Indicators in several years. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more
The dollar took another hit on Friday, taking the DXY to 13-month lows of 93.87. U.S. political concerns and generally shaking risk taking levels have weighed. EUR-USD topped 1.1680, a new 23-month high, while USD-JPY sank to one-month lows of 111.01. Read more
All this year, purchase mortgage applications have been something of an outlier in the housing sector. Permits and starts are flat to lower since the end of last year: So are existing home sales, which are about 90% of the market: Only new home sales seem to be showing a similar trend, as of last month up 9% YoY: Meanwhile, purchase mortgage applications are up 7% YoY (h/t Calculated Risk) In fact, purchase mortgage applications look like they've been on a tear since the end of 2014. Read more
EUR-USD clocked a new 23-month high at 1.1677 before tipping back under 1.1650. There appears to be at least some speculation in the interbank market that ECB officials may attempt to walk back some of the hawkish interpretation of markets to yesterday's communication from Draghi, who perhaps didn't envisage such a strong euro rally, which is making trading a little skittish at the highs. Read more
EUR-USD logged a three-day low at 1.1504 ahead of the London open as markets prepare for the ECB's policy announcement today, which is likely to signal largely unchanged dovish-leaning guidance while acknowledging economic improvement. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses have been holding up better, however, suggesting that markets are mostly satisfied with their positioning in the common currency. Read more
The dollar slumped in N.Y trade on Thursday, with action led by the ECB announcement and press conference, which saw EUR-USD rally to near two-year highs of 1.1658. Chief Draghi attired things up as he attempted to downplay timing and details of next policy moves, the upbeat comments on EU economic strength, and the fact that everyone knows tapering is coming, all allowed the euro to rise. Read more
In fact, purchase mortgage applications look like they've been on a tear since the end of 2014.&p[images][0]=/s3/files/styles/large/s3/image_1062.jpg?itok=OHuaYAEh){kind=link}